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December 3, 2018

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Prediction Markets' Forecast on Tax Changes

July 28, 2017

Prediction markets accuracy rates average 74%[1], and are more often more accurate than expert or public opinion surveys.

 

With that in mind, we thought we would give you the prediction markets’ take on the likelihood of changes to various taxes for the year 2017.

Following are the current issues being debated as well as the odds of tax change this year, by issue:

  • Will Individual tax rates be cut?

  • Will funds’ carried interest become taxes as ordinary income?

  • Will corporate tax rates go down?

  • Will estate taxes be repealed?

  • Will the AMT be repealed?
     

Will Individual Tax Rates be Cut in 2017?

 

Yes 37%
No 63%

 

Legislation shall be enacted prior to the end of 2017, setting the marginal federal tax rate applicable to the highest bracket of ordinary income of individual single filers, for tax year 2016 and/or any future tax years, to a level below 39.6%.

Enactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law.

 

Will 2017 legislation classify carried interest as ordinary income?

 

Yes 7%
No 93%

 

Legislation shall be enacted prior to the end of 2017, amending the Internal Revenue Code with the effect of newly treating as ordinary income at least some net capital gains generated under investment services partnership interests, with any effective date.

 

Will Corporate Tax Rates Go Down in 2017?

 

Yes 40%
No 60%

 

Legislation shall be enacted prior to the end of 2017, setting the marginal federal tax rate applicable to the highest bracket of regular income of corporations, for tax year 2016 and/or any future tax years, to a level below 35.0%.
 

 

Will the Estate Tax be Repealed in 2017?

 

Yes 17%
No 83%

 

On or before December 31, 2017, legislation shall be enacted which repeals or amends chapter 11 of subtitle B of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, with the effect of eliminating the taxes imposed by that chapter on the transfer of estates of decedents who are citizens or residents of the United States, or of setting the effective rate of such taxation at 0%. Such elimination may be effective for any current or future tax year.

Will the alternative minimum tax be repealed in 2017?

 

Yes 17%
No 83%

 

On or before December 31, 2017, legislation shall be enacted which repeals or amends Section 55(a) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, with the effect of eliminating, for all individual taxpayers, the imposition of a tax representing the excess of a tentative minimum tax over the regular tax for the taxable year, or of setting the tentative minimum tax for all such taxpayers to zero. Such elimination may be effective for any current or future tax year.

For more information on these and other political related issues go to https://www.predictit.org/

 

mike@slimstrategic.com

 

 

 

 

[1] http://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/research/LongRunAccuracy/

 

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